Failing to plan is planning to fail, and nowhere does the old business saying ring more true than in the realm of Springbok rugby. Let’s hope the new year ushers in a changing of the guard, for the good of the game.
Here’s an educated guess for you: Come the first Test against England in June next year, the Boks will have not only a new coach, but an entirely new coaching staff. This just over a year out from the 2019 Rugby World Cup in Japan.
Thank goodness, I say. The sooner we move on from the truly horrific Allister Coetzee era, the better.
Post-isolation, only John Williams (20%), Ian McIntosh (33%), and Carel du Plessis (37.5%) have worse records than Coetzee. They lasted 5, 12 and 8 games in the job respectively, yet Coetzee, with a win record of 44% after two seasons on the job, is on 25.
Under Coetzee, the Boks have chalked up the following milestones:
- Worst season in Springbok history – 4 wins from 12 Tests
- Biggest loss in Springbok history (57-0 v New Zealand)
- Most points conceded in a Test (57 v New Zealand in both 2016 and 2017)
- First loss against Ireland in South Africa
- Most points conceded against Ireland (38) in 111 years
- First away loss against Argentina
- First loss against Italy
- Biggest loss against Wales
Throw in the tidal wave of players leaving the country and the internal politicking around transformation, and I think it’s fair to call the Bok coaching job the toughest gig in world rugby. But the time has come to judge Allister Coetzee, and he has failed.
It does beg the question regarding our succession planning, though. In all likelihood, it would involve yet another complete change in the guard, as has been the case in almost every change in Bok coach.
Coetzee was a very late appointment after Heyneke Meyer was chased out of town, with Johann van Graan the only assistant coach to keep his role.
Meyer took over from Pieter de Villiers after he was laughed off, again bringing in a new set of assistant coaches. De Villiers came in after Jake White and his entire staff were fired, while White was pulled in after Rudolf (Kamp Staaldraad) Straeuli was chased out of Dodge.
Zero continuity planning, instead a completely new approach every time. In effect three steps forward, and two steps back – at best. Most often four steps back, meaning that it has been incredibly difficult to take the South African game forward.
Staying ahead of the wave is hard in any field of competition, be it commercial, cultural or sporting. The key, though, is making the change before failure forces it upon the organisation.
In South Africa, there is also the likelihood of third party interference forcing change, with that being even more difficult to predict than failure.
No coach is more aware of this, than those who select and coach successful teams. They are constantly reviewing players’ performances and looking ahead.
After winning the Rugby World Cup in 2015, All Black coach Steve Hansen could have asked for anything he wanted. At the time he wanted to take the team through another two years and, thereafter, leave New Zealand Rugby’s options open.
As it turned out, the NZRU extended Hansen’s contract to the World Cup in 2019. A pretty obvious call given Hansen’s winning record, which is off the charts at 90%.
The point being that he and the NZRU have been discussing his future, allowing them to plan. He took over a winning team from Graham Henry under both coaches. The All Blacks have been a model of careful development and succession planning. Including having exciting replacements in the squad that took over from the six veterans (including legends Richie McCaw and Dan Carter) who departed after winning the 2015 World Cup.
Hansen’s own succession was seamless, and by the time Hansen takes the All Blacks to Japan in 2019 his own successor will no doubt be at his side. Current assistant coach, Ian Foster has been described as the “obvious, logical choice” to succeed Hansen by Steve Tew, the NZRU CEO.
Talk about chalk and cheese!
So who’s your next manager, CEO, or head of development? Are you the Springboks or the All Blacks of the commercial transition world?
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