Our #2015Trends Iris Session with David O’ Sullivan

Find out: What’s hot, what’s not – and how to stay ahead of the trends in 2015!

When you’re trying to stay on top of world events, rising food and fuel prices, inflation, interest rates, workplace pressures and family demands, it’s not always easy to love change. Don’t worry – we’ve called in the Big Guns to help you figure out which fads are fading, which trends are trending – and most importantly, which Changes are here to stay.

Radio veteran David O’ Sullivan met up with trend analyst  Dion Chang  and micro-economist Trudi Makhaya on Google Hangouts to get the lowdown on the Big Issues that are likely to affect your life this year from an economic, lifestyle and career perspective.

You can watch the session in the window below:

Transcript:

DS: Welcome to the latest Iris Session, brought to you by BrightRock. We’ve got a fascinating discussion for you this evening. I’ve got two wonderful guests; I’ll introduce them in a couple of seconds. We’re talking about Trends. Not only Trends for 2015, but I think we might be able to look into our crystal balls a little bit further than that. Now, BrightRock is a financial services provider, it operates in the life insurance market. And its interest in Change and how it affects people derives from the fact that its life insurance offering is uniquely structured to change at all times. So why am I telling you all of this? Well, because BrightRock started the Change Exchange – it’s an online resource centre that provides people with a safe space to ask questions. We are asking you to ask questions as well, if you’re here as part of this Google Hangout, ask questions. Fire away. We’ll be answering some of those questions. There are times where everything, from one’s sense of identity to one’s personal finances are challenged. Like when you start a new job, when you start a new business, when you’re buying a home. There are many opportunities, many occasions where Big Change happens in your life. Tonight we’re here to focus on a topic that has an impact on all spheres of our lives, and that’s the trends of 2015. What’s hot, what’s not, what do we have to get used to, how to make the best of the year that is coming up. Now, two people who can talk most eloquently, more eloquently than I about these things are joining me on our group Google Hangout, and let me introduce them to you. First of all a man – and what title to have – an innovator, a visionary. Dion Chang. Does the title Visionary rest easily on your shoulders, Dion?

DC: Good evening, David. Not really, because neither does Futurist, but I really love what I do, and you can, to a sort of an extent, glimpse into a crystal ball, but I’ve learnt in doing this for about 10 years now, that you should only be about 20 minutes ahead of the curve, rather than two hours ahead of the curve. Because if you’re two hours ahead of the curve, you scare the horses and people don’t believe what you’re doing. So you’ve got to kind-of judge the trajectory of a trend very carefully, but we managed to be able to do that at FluxTrends.

DO: Well, you’re the first person I’ve interviewed who’s described as a visionary, so I’m delighted to have that and I have been looking at some of the research you have been doing, and I know you’re going to be absolutely fascinating, as will our other guest – Trudi Makhaya is also with us. Now Trudi is a micro-economist, she’s an independent economist, formerly with the Competition Commission, but it really is that economist’s hat that you’re going to be wearing tonight, isn’t it, Trudi?

TM: Absolutely. I think the idea would be to talk about the economic trends that are coming forward. To think of ways that they impact on ordinary citizens and how to think about this big topic, that is often very daunting. What is happening in my economic environment? How do I deal with the Changes that I don’t have control over, but certainly have an impact on my life? And that would be a very important thing for us to engage on this and I’m always happy to talk about the economy, what it means, and also hearing what people are most anxious and concerned about.

DS: Well I’ve been saying to both Dion and Trudi before we started this Google Hangout that Dion is very much going to be Mr. Buzz, Mr. Excitement, because there are going to be so many wonderful trends that we can look forward to. Fascinating trends as well, that we have seen developing over 2014 and will continue into 2015. And Trudi I believe is the person who is going to give us the reality check. Put the brakes on our expectations if we run ahead of ourselves like the 20 minutes Dion was talking about. So Trudi, I’m going to start with you. With the economy going forward, and I find it poignant for this hangout that we’re talking about back-up systems in case we have loadshedding. I see a banner from the Star newspaper talking about Koeberg’s woes. Obviously this whole issue of power is going to have a dramatic impact on the economy in 2015, Expand a little on that and tell me other economic trends that we need to be aware of?

TM: So we go into 2015 very much enjoying the benefits of a windfall, in the form of a lower oil price. So that’s actually been very good news. I understand that consumers now have disposable income, the petrol price is going down today, reflecting that international trend. That’s the good news part of it. But then what do you do with that? What does it mean for economic growth? It could mean a lot. It could mean that consumers are able to spend on goods and services that entrepreneurs are providing. It could mean greater economic activity. But is that going to happen? Not necessarily. Because of the infrastructure constraints that we’re facing, we’re in a situation where what could have been an opportunity in terms of the oil price, now is a wasted opportunity because our production can’t expand in the same way. And it’s not just electricity. There are other challenges, infrastructure challenges in roads, in the way we get things to market, our labour market – all of these things have inefficiencies that mean that when something good happens the impact isn’t as much as it should be. Or isn’t as impactful as it should be. Then there’s other benefits that we are enjoying. A weaker exchange rate for many people is a negative thing. It suggests a weaker economy, yet at the same time it could mean that we’re becoming more competitive. It could mean that our exports become cheaper in our international markets. Once again over the past year and this year we are going to see our exchange rate weakening, but will we be able to reap that competitive boost? Unfortunately not as much as we could have, had we had a more productive economy. And so there are potential sources or potential trends that could mean that we grow faster, than the 2.5% or per cent so that we’re going to see this year, but because of these real infrastructure constraints, we’re not able to go much faster than that. And it’s only when those underlying structural issues are dealt with, that we could say the economy would be on a more progressive and productive track. Other trends that we’re seeing, is that even though South African exchange rates were kept on hold last week, which is once again a good thing for many consumers and those who are indebted, that also can’t go on for too long because the rest of the world certainly are the ones that set the agenda for us, like the US, are going to be increasing their interest rates. So we might have this relief in the short term, but when we’re going forward, interest rates are likely to go higher than to stay the same. And those who have been talking about a potential rate cut would be extremely hopeful. We’re also not going to see that anytime in the near future.

DS: A comprehensive answer. Dion, I’m going to bring you in there. Do you wear an economist hat at any stage of your life, Dion? I wouldn’t say an economist hat, but I do study the intricate connectivity between all of those pillars. So whether it’s political, whether it’s social dynamics, as well as the economy – the trends that I track are all interlinked. And which is why I think it’s kind of very really pertinent that we decided to call the generic trend forecast for a year. And with the past couple of years we’ve been slowly crossing into a new world order, adjusting to that, there’s been a lot of disruptive technologies, but we’ve really named 2015 the year of disorder, where disorder is the way of the new world order. And you are seeing those signs of disorder, whether it be political, starting as far back as 2011 from the Occupy Wall Street, so the economic disorder is really spilling over and feeding over into the social and political disorder, because we’re seeing rapid inequality, South Africa might wear the horrible crown of being the most unequal society on the planet. In every emerging nation where we’re trying to see it, the impact of sluggish economies and that downturn, the long downturn – we’re just trying to come out of what we call the Great Recession, is really, really fuelling different social trends. On the cover of Time Magazine, which is this week – the current one – it’s talking about the sharing economy. And I think all of these kind of pressures on it – economic pressures – especially on the middle class, because we’ve been tracking for a number of years, the emergence of a global economy, which is an hourglass economy. You’re getting extreme wealth burgeoning and extreme poverty and in the middle class – in especially South Africa – you’re starting to feel that you’re being squeezed, and squeezed and squeezed and as Trudi says – this kind of light relief with the petrol price going down. Before we went live I was listening to people on the radio station saying the cost, the price of petrol that’s dropped, has is going to save me R500 every month. But in the greater scheme of things, with these new trends coming through, of people sharing… you’re seeing it in big businesses. So for example a company like Air B&B, where you literally swop homes or you’re staying in people’s apartments and homes around the world… When they first launched, the founders were actually funding to raise this model… in one of the fundraising things one of the potential investors walked out of the room and said this is a preposterous idea, how could this possibly work? And now a company like Air B&B is booking more hotel or rooms, let’s say not hotel rooms than a big group like the Hilton. So we’ve really seen this disorder, and it stems from the state of the economy, political disorder, we’re all seeing the reverberation and this kind of net, the social net, is being twitched on one end, and the whole web is starting to shake.

DS: I am very interested in this concept. I was reading on your website, FluxTrends, this concept of this disorder. I must say I didn’t understand it as well as you’ve put it now… I think I’ve got a better view of it. I saw it more… I was looking at real disorder in terms of EFF disrupting parliament, IS causing global scares in the way that they are waging war. Is that forming part of the disorder that you speak about?

DC: Yes, because in this video presentation that we’re talking about, that we’re actually launching next week, there are six pillars in that report. So it goes from – we use an acronym which is TRENDS – Technology, Retail and Marketing, State of the Economy, The Natural world, Diplomacy and Social culture. It’s a very rounded 360 look at the state of the world. And that disorder permeates through everything. SO yes, it is political disorder, it is about the EFF disrupting, but it’s also, very importantly, my personal thing that I really love tracking is disruptive technology. You’ve started to see companies like your Ubers and things completely get up the noses of a lot of established transport associations, taxi associations because this is the way we used to do things in the old world order, in the 20th century. And now you’re starting to see a whole new wave of things being done differently… And the other trend that I’m tracking very carefully, are your millennial generation – those are the people that are driving new concepts like the shared economy, like Air B&B, and you know, if I was possibly in the automotive industry I would also start to be very, very worried, because young people – especially in developed countries with good infrastructure – are not even considering buying cars anymore. In fact, I have quite a few friends in Cape Town who have started using Uber and public transport, and all of them asking questions of whether or not they should be buying a car. Because you look at the maintenance of the car over 5 years, compared to maybe what I call transient ownership, it actually balances out. So we’re really entering into a very interesting space, and I’m not sure where it’s going to go, but disruption and disorder is going to be part of that.

DS: Well I’m going to go through those particular titles that you refer to, bring up the word trends, in a little bit more detail, but Trudy, I think I’ll get back to you. I mentioned the EFF and all eyes on parliament on the 12th of February? The president opens the next session of parliament.  What I’m more interested in, is what is he going to say. Or what should he say, in your view? The president sets the bar – it’s the State of the Nation – what is the State of the Nation… what would you anticipate if you were delivering that speech? What are the keepings you would want to point out?

TM: I think there’s a lot of values distracting us from the real issues when it comes to the State of the Nation, so I think there will be a lot of drama around that. I think in an ideal world where there isn’t this much focus on his personal issues and what EFF is raising around Nkandla. It should be, taking back the nation through the basics and saying we’re at a crossroads and the only reason why we’re not in crisis because we have been handed these gifts like the decline of the oil price, which are only temporary and which will not take us far. So the question would be what are the elements, what would be the main pillars of an economy that is thriving, that is productive, that’s going to take us forward? So I think if you had to put this in different categories one will obviously be Economic Sustainability – not looking at the economy of today, but the economy of the future. And other trends we catched on, for instance, Is South Africa Actually Geared Up to Take Advantage of them and to be able to move forward into the world or are we going to lag behind? Are South African citizens skilled enough to take advantage of some of the innovations that come with a sharing economy? Are they able to participate in a global media? Are they able to participate in ways that they can plug into these offerings that the rest of the world is enjoying? So economy would be one pillar where it would have to be a sense of this is how it’s going to be; a different way of doing business going forward. And I think we’ll need to talk tough, because what we do have is an economy that is very much still in the grip of high wages in comparison to our peers, and also high profit margins in terms of our corporates. And so how do we become more competitive and economy in a sense that we’re not a first world economy and yet we still operate with first world profit expectations and wage expectations, and yet we have a third world infrastructure and third world prospects? How do we enter a state where – obviously we can’t compete with China – but we should try to find a way with some of our emerging market peers and some of the other BRIC nations to reform in a way that will make us more competitive relative to them. So that will take a lot of sacrifice from all the major stakeholders and a lot of sacrifice from organised labour movements in terms of some of the protections that are very necessary, but sometimes it gets in the way of – for instance – integrating young people into the economy. Then we will also have to sacrifice in terms of executive compensation expectations and also shareholders in terms of the returns that they expect to see if we’re going to have an economy where for instance the prices of basic goods are not as high as they are, and one that introduces more competition in the way that it functions. At the Competition Commission one has seen some very uncompetitive behaviour, so how do you get the corporate sector on board (A) to [inaudible] that kind of behaviour, and secondly [inaudible] to show that you’re getting new ideas into the economy. So all of that sacrifice and before work that needs to be done to get the economy on that trajectory would be what I would expect to see in the State of the Nation, and in some ways it will be reiterating some parts of the NDP, emphasising others and bringing them to the fore such as for instance reforming the civil service. And also reiterating that there will be consequences to parts of government that are not implementing the targets that are in the medium term strategic plan which is meant to align to the National Development Plan. If I were him I would also be looking at legislation that his parliament, his executive is presenting to him. And, with a view to say if it’s actually in line with the objectives of the National Development Plan that we’re trying to get to. Is legislation that is coming out productive, have acknowledgement of the role of investors, the role of the informal economy and entrepreneur – there’s lots of legislation that either conflicts with that, sometimes quite seriously, or is even indifferent to what the NDP is trying to do.

DS: Dion, I’m going to come to you now. Sorry Trudy, I do want to move away from the big picture. You sketched for us a very comprehensive view of what the president should be saying. What I want to do now is move the conversation and look at the way in which 2015 is going to impact on our lives. We’ve got the big picture now – the economy obviously affects all of us very deeply, we understand that now, but let’s have a look at some of the trends, that any person who’s undergoing Big Change in their life – getting a job, moving house, anything like that, and Dion, you picked up on the various issues of technology, the retail market and economy, the natural world. Let’s have a look at some of those trends which have a bearing on the way we make decisions, take decisions and how decisions influence our lives. We’ll start with technology. What are the trends of 2015?

DC: Well I think the ones that are… the evolution… because every year there’s something new, the ‘this thing is the best thing since sliced bread’ kind of technology messages that you get. And what I’m really trying to track and see what’s coming through, are technology trends that are going to impact two industries very specifically. You’re starting to see the effect of digitisation in various industries. So for me it’s not a specific technology because you can go from driverless cars to drones, but that’s about three to five years off. But the ones that are really going to start impacting the two industries that I want to focus on, is possibly healthcare, and financial services. And if you start looking at where the technology of wearable technology has come – wearable tech was the darling of 2014 – it’s now had this romance with the fashion industry and you’re starting to see – I read it this afternoon – about wearable tech becoming more and more invisible. So you’re not going to have something as prominent as something that you put on your wrist. People are saying that’s all very nice, but that was the fitness craze of 2014. What I find is really interesting is the digitisation of health care services. So you are going to see about in the first quarter, there is going to be a first in South Africa that – the concept is called remote monitoring. That is when you Skype in to your doctor and you book a Skype call and you get a diagnosis. The interesting thing for me, where we are in terms of trends and technology, because we’re moving so fast with technology is that legislation and regulation haven’t caught up. So I met with the developers of this new service, and it’s going to be called MyDoctor24 – they’re being given a lot of flak by the medical fraternity, because they say you can’t allow a doctor to give a proper diagnosis over Skype. So they’ve had to go and find some loopholes, and that’s where we’re going, there’s all this new technology that you are able to assess the urgency of that patient’s case. But if you just think about the ripple effect of wearable tech and where it’s going to go, so for anybody that’s not familiar with it, I’m wearing a piece of wearable tech. I’ve seen some amazing pieces which look like women’s’ jewellery which you decide which vital signs you want to track for the day. So, pollen count, vital statistics and you almost customise what you’re going to track that day. So if you need to Skype in to a doctor, they will then through the miracle of cloud computing just access your vital signs in real time and they can give you a diagnosis with that. Where this is going, and I have a lot of arguments about the future of drones, I’ve seen too much evidence of where it’s going, so I’ve already seen a kick-starter – they give you funding for it – it’s called an ambulance drone. And if you do have an ambulance drone, you’ll see that they send… the scenario is someone’s father collapses in a shopping mall, the girl phones into emergency services and they say don’t worry, we’ll dispense the drone. And the drone is on its way. It ticks all the trend boxes. It’s a 3D printed drone, so it’s lighter, it flies faster, it’s got a camera in it, it picks up the GPS of every person who’s calling it, so it goes directly to that person. The drone lands, the person says just go outside the shopping centre, and as the drone approaches it says we see you, put your phone away, you can speak through the drone now. The drone lands, it says carry the drone to your father, we’ll take it from there. The camera kind of assesses it and says I think he needs fibrillator and out of the drone comes two little packs which they put onto the guy’s chest and they say stand back and the drone does a bit of an emergency service. So this is really the reality of – and it’s not science fiction – it’s really, really happening. And where we’re going with this. And so I think the healthcare services and to a large extent the financial services have been shielded from digitisation. Your entertainment industry, your print media industries and all of those kind of things have been hit by digitisation, and these are the industries that are going to hit you. And for life-changing moments, these are going to converge into a very interesting time. So the trends I’m talking of are 20 minutes ahead of the curve, so in the next 18 months to two to three years, this is all going to become a reality. And whenever I have a conversation or argument with someone who says it’s too much like science fiction and it’s not going to happen, it’s when these technologies are used for greater good. So if you’re looking at drones that are taking life-giving medicines to remote areas or disaster zones, and Ebola struck area, it suddenly makes sense when people say why didn’t we use this earlier? The tricky thing is that we are at a fork in the road with this technology, because we haven’t got the regulations, so drones can now be used for – there’s a company in Pretoria that are developing drones that will monitor riots, and that will do pepper spray onto rioting crowds, so we’ve got this weird paradigm where we’ve got technology for greater good, and technology that we use for other purposes, and we’re not quite sure where that fork in the road is going to take us.

DS: I’m going to bring Trudi in at this point. Does this excite you? This kind of a technology that’s on offer? Does it sound real to you, Trudi? It excites me. You know, obviously there will be different grades of adoption of this technology to our context. What I find most exciting about a lot of that is that it lowers the barriers to entry, both from a business and a professional perspective. So from a business perspective if someone is trying to get into a new industry – say you want to get into media or even medicine –   in the past it used to be a massive investment. You would have to tap into financial markets. As long as the technology Dion talks about will probably entail that… but some of it does mean that you’re able to leapfrog – even what we’re doing now – we live in this whole. Even what we’re doing now – we’re having this whole conversation. We don’t need expensive studios; we don’t have 20 people of crew managing us. So in a way all of this was barriers to entry in many industries and make it possible for entrepreneurs to thrive. And also just for ordinary people, making services that would have been absolute luxuries a generation away. Even in terms of healthcare, once again. The kinds of treatment that would not be accessible in a public health setting, for instance – if we get our act together, would be able to reach people in the most remote areas. The whole innovations around telemedicine and mobile medicine et cetera, all of that means greater service delivery. So it is quite exciting. Some of it makes me a bit nervous because it also says what does it mean for some livelihoods – some people who made career choices and and a living, you know, as a traditional doctor or as a camera man in a studio, who is suddenly going to be replaced by all of this and we’re talking about change moments… They might not necessarily have the skills, guidance, resources to repurpose their career and redirect it to catch up with all of this that is happening. So I see a lot of home, but the transition will probably be a bit painful for those who have sunken vestments in the old world, so to speak. But I think it’s always like that with innovation – it’s improving people’s lives, but there are those who find themselves on the margins.

DS: What I find very interesting about this entire discussion, is that – and I have absolutely no doubt you are, correct me on the vision that you are putting forward – is that it’s all very dependent on the World Wide Web. It’s dependent on the internet. And I suppose none of this is really going to work, and it’s not going to work for anybody who’s making key decision changes in their lives, wants to tap into the new trends – as Trudi says the barriers of entry will come down.  If you have good coverage – until we’ve got good internet coverage, fast download speeds and low data charges in South Africa, this is going to be a bit of a way off. And we’re already seeing the rest of Africa going ahead of South Africa when it comes to digital technology. Do you think we’re missing the boat here? That we’re not getting the technology right for people to take advantage of these great trends?

DC: I think we’ve got the capacity to get the technology right. I think going back to Trudi’s first statement about the state of the economy; I really do think we’re stuck in an old world order in terms of the profit margins and all of that. The growing inequality, the voices that you’re starting to see around the world is really pointing to doing things in a very different way. And the reason why I say that these specific industries, having shielded from digitisation, is that the revolution is coming. And you’re completely right. A city like Kigali in Rwanda is leaps and bounds ahead of us in terms of supporting entrepreneurs and registering a c company – being able to register a company in a couple of hours and getting it going. They’ve understood the fact that everybody knows – the more broadband, the more connectivity you give to your society and your country will raise the GDP of that country. So I think, I feel personally that we’re being held to ransom by I’ll call it the evil tripartite alliance of the telecom companies of South Africa, who the past couple of years we have had these undersea cables connected to Africa, there is the capability to do that, but I think greed gets in the way and we need to look at things a little bit differently, and something’s got to give within business to manage that.

DS: Okay, I’ve got a question here from Suzanne who says “I’d love to hear from Dion how technology will change financial services, how it will affect us as individuals who use the products?” Now internet banking is nothing new in South Africa, though obviously things will move forward rapidly. How do you see the financial services changing as we look forward in 2015 and beyond, Dion?

DC: I think there’s a really [inaudible] because if you look at the way financial services are structured in the 20th century, was that a third party always used to sell your product. And fundamentally for me, is I’ll put my market hat on and look at consumer experiences and how it would affect us as consumers who use the products. I think the access to the products is the first way of doing things. Because, as you said, in the banking world they have learned very, very quickly that you have to have a direct line of contact or communication to your customer. And although financial services rely on third parties to be able to represent not only the brand, but also to sell the product, is problematic for me in a digital era, because you want to really, really have quick, easy access to the source of whatever that financial service says. And then we’re actually talking about the different products. And that gets really interesting if we’re taking about life-changing moments, because one of the trends that we’ve put, which is sort of a red flag to just get people there, is the rise of egg-freezing parties, which started in New York last year. But what’s underneath that is really something that is going to shake financial services up. You’re getting a lot of women who are deciding to have children much, much later. So the Baby Boomer generation would marry in their early 20s – my mom got married at 18 – and you were able to have your kids and then still [inaudible]. What’s happening now is delayed parenting, so through science and healthcare you are able to have that. In my group of friends I have three or four female friends who are having babies – if not their first – their second child in their fourties. Which means that the whole way in which you look at [inaudible] and the way you manage these life-changing moments, are all converging much, much later. So all the algorithms and the things that financial services have worked out in terms of savings and how you charge for these kind of things have all been disrupted, and disorder goes even into that way of doing things. So I think there’s going to be a real shake-up because it is a very definite trend of delayed parenting and trying to do things much, much later and having tried to have it all with the career and that. And if you look at especially that millennial females – unlike the previous generations of mothers – they want to have it all, but they also want to try it all – and they definitely are going to bounce back into the workforce, so all of those different kind of roles and how you look at finances is going to change and will be disrupted as well.

DS: And it’s the perfect time to bring in someone like you, Trudi. A woman who has been successful, though I’m sure you would have felt there would have been other pressures put on you, in terms of do you put family first, career first. Of course men haven’t had to bother with that kind of thing. Just picking up what Dion has been talking about there, that women now, through the egg-freezing, are putting things like raising a family on hold while they get their careers going. Do you see that as something of a growing trend? It’s certainly a trend. I think we should unpack the reasons behind all of this. I think that expectations in general, that women have of success or their careers – I also think that the way that things are structured and how success is defined and nowadays often we use many, many years of post-matric study, that women simply don’t have an option to do. So in a way I think it’s not necessarily that it’s completely optional that women are putting off… or that women are responding to incentives around them that have to do with the way the world is structured, and perhaps we should think about doing things differently as a whole, but I also mean men changing how they structure their career and how they are rewarded so that when women pull out of the active workforce in their 20s or so, they are not penalised for that. Having said that, I think there is a development that there is even greater choices that women have with these technologies in terms of freezing eggs. It might do what contraceptives did in the 1950s, which in terms of even expanding the choices that one has, it probably does have an impact on the economy as a whole, but we’ll see as generations go on. For instance it will tend to reduce family size if women are waiting much later. I think terms of the way that people look at their finances, I wouldn’t say it’s all equivalent at the end of it all, but if you do take a life cycle view, you could be working – in the old days you would be working and spending on a family pretty much simultaneously. But now you’re saving a bit a cushion, a fund that will prepare you to have kids in your late 30s and 40s, but  does that mean that you then keep on working in those 30s and 40s? I think it also opens other types of options, like taking sabbaticals in mid-career because they have built up a financial cushion to be able to do that. People joke about creating their own trust funds, and they can off and explore other things later in life in a way that wasn’t possible earlier on. So is it meant for a wealthier world? Probably not. I think we’re just shifting around finances in a life time, but one would then have to take very different advice. You know, the advice we used to get in our 20s that now you’re going to be spending all your money on a family and then you save much later on doesn’t go anymore. You actually paying it upfront and then have family time and then you get to think about retirement, which also means that financial products have to be a bit more complex to take advantage of that. There might be times when you’re out of the workforce and you’re not saving for your retirement at all, there might be times where I think employers would have to rethink – or governments and employers – rethink retirement ages, because it might be that you’re being asked to retire when your kids are just completing high school. So I think a lot of that will shift with these options, but I think if they’re exercised in a way that is empowering women, that is great. The Google thing was controversial, and Facebook, because it seemed as if they were trying to encourage women to delay childbirth. I didn’t see it that way. I thought what they were trying to do for those women who actually it hasn’t happened for whatever reason, they haven’t met the right person, here is another avenue. But the moment it becomes pressure, to say you have to – you don’t need to go off and have kids in your 20s anymore, then that’s where it becomes a bit problematic for me.

DS: Sorry Dion, do you want to pick up there?

DC: I just want to second what Trudi was saying, because you know, one of the other trends that we have been doing is looking at the death of the career – the single career. You are going to probably have five, if not more, different careers trajectories. Exactly what Trudi is saying, is the challenge for financial services is to create really different products because we’re moving into a complex world. The Japanese have a fantastic word for this, they call it career kaizan, which means you kind of work a little bit, and then you take a sabbatical, you upskill yourself at different times of your life, you go onto a different career trajectory, you might work a little bit more, study a little bit more, and that kind-of fluidity and the transience of different careers is going to be a reality, it’s already started, and you’re going to see older people who just don’t want to retire, and those are becoming your new entrepreneurs. So everything’s sort of been shifted around, and I think that’s going to be a very interesting way of doing things, especially if you look at people’s attachment to material goods. I spoke of transient ownership before and I think those sort of new concepts are going to feed different lifestyles and enable people to do different things at different times of their lives. So instead of an endowment policy that is rather give me something that I’ll be able to use to upskill myself at 45 or 50 or something like that, through to start a new trajectory.

DS: What I also found interesting is that we seem to be talking about careers and the way people will practice their careers, put it that way, is that possibly we’re going to see the end of the office, Dion. That people will be working from home, because technology will allow that and that’s a trend for the future? It’s happening right now?

DC: It’s absolutely happening right now, but I think what is going to be interesting is that the pendulum is going to swing back and forth quite rapidly and very often and you’re starting to see that people who like the remote working, is that you still crave some of that social interaction of it. So you’ve got different concepts around, that are coming through now, of hot desking and they’re calling it work popcorning, so you literally start off in a boardroom and you’re going into a coffee-office or somewhere else and you do a Google Hangout, and I think it’s going to be very interesting in terms of technology – it’s going to really free people up. But we are all sociable and we want that kind of a interactivity – it’s going to be a high [inaudible] so even in the ecommerce space, where we do a lot of work, we’re starting to see not just online, but offline – people want a little bit of interactivity online, but offline they also want a bit of digitalisation. So it’s a nice hybrid of everything, and that’s the challenge going forward in all industries.

DS: I want to touch on one last thing, because we’re almost out of time and it’s the issue of – well I can combine a whole lot of elements – we look at the growth of the or the talk of the need to grow small business entrepreneurs. Small entrepreneurs. Then I look at people who need to – consumers – who are looking for the fast and easy way to buy their products… there must a fabulous come-together of those two elements, Trudi, with the growing trends. Technology helping people set up small businesses, and small businesses then assisting people who are the consumers, so growing the online shopping experience, possibly?

TM: Exactly. And I think we need to develop a supporting infrastructure around that. Then, once again, it’s not about challenges, but opportunities. So ecommerce is going to take off and it already has in many ways, the postal service, unfortunately given what’s been happening over the past year, will have to be circumvented, and so that creates opportunities with delivery by drones, ultimately, but also mostly entrepreneurs who could be running courier type services. With more personalised services, also, we find that there’s a whole range of opportunities that then open for people who then offer to go and buy someone’s groceries, all of the opportunities for young people, who for instance would have never really had any other entry point into the economy. As soon as you get them online, you get people with needs that need to be filled. Also in South Africa we have a bit of an ageing population, not as much as Europe, but 10% of the population is old… All these young people, if you find ways that bring together a platform where they’ll be assisting all of those older people, you have instances where information is really difficult to get hold of for young people, but once you have platforms – even kick-starter kind of platforms taken from overseas where people can bring their ideas and say “I have this fabulous idea for an African inspired cutlery range – who wants to finance that?” and somebody from Cape Town puts their hands up and says “I want to support that entrepreneur”. So I think a lot is useable, we just need to fix the small little frictions that get in the way, but I’m very optimistic that there’s a lot that technology could do to get us out of some of the rut that we find ourselves in in terms of our low growth prospects. So I think we have to tap onto the creativity of young people, think differently about the skills that they need and think differently about how to invest and incentivise and try to take them on. And so I do see that opportunity that comes up for small businesses. I just think, we just need to go that extra mile to tap into it.

DS: Dion I am going to give you that last question, and I want you to give us a real science fiction answer here. Is there a particular trend that when you tell people about it, they do think you’re smoking your socks. One that you know is going to become a reality? Is there a particular trend like that?

DC: For me it’s drones. I am so emphatic about the future of drones, I’ve already seen there’s a company in London who have already started a company which is Drone on Demand, and anybody who’s used Uber, it’s the same experience to really call a drone in, as I said before on the same GPS, there are ways of doing things… I’ve just seen so much evidence of where we’re going. The legislation has not caught up and it is going to be… and people say – and I love the cynicism of South Africans – and whenever I have this conversation I say, well someone is going to shoot my drone down and steal the stuff that they’re going to deliver for me, and I say well, that’s a fantastic opportunity for short-term insurance, because no-one’s worked that one out yet. And the reason why I love my job as well is that I think the world is shifting so fundamentally and so fast, is to what Trudy is saying is that there are so many opportunities – you’ve got to just really look in different places to see it. And I hate the expression – to think out the box. I rather say rethink the entire package. So look at the package completely differently and I think there’s lots of opportunities there.

DS: Give us a Twitter handle? @FluxTrends, I would presume, if people would want to follow you on Twitter and follow you on your website Fluxtrends.co.za?

DC: My personal one is @DionChang, or @FluxTrends.

DS: Oh, okay, it’s as simple as that. It’s been an absolute pleasure chatting to you, Dion, thank you very much, and Trudi, are you on Twitter? Are you a social media fan?

TM: Absolutely, @TrudiMakhaya. Also just one word.

DS: You’re so lucky to have your own names to do it. My thanks to Trudi, my thanks to Dion as well, my thanks to you as well for being with us for this Iris Session with BrightRock. We’ll be having them once a month and for the next Iris Session with BrightRock, I would suggest you follow BrightRock on Twitter @BrightRockZA. From me, David O’ Sullivan, thank you very much for watching. Bye.